Confusion in Russians’ minds: mobilization, war support, and peace talks

Executive Summary

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This report covers Russians’ attitude towards a recently announced mobilization, “special military operation” (”SMO”), and potential peace talks. The final sample included 980 respondents with a mean age of 37.6. Participants were recruited online on 26th of September, 5 days after Putin's mobilization announcement.

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• A significant part of respondents supports the “SMO,” while support for “partial” mobilization is significantly lower than support for the war itself.

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• Russians mostly feel sadness and hope regarding the mobilization, very rarely experiencing enthusiasm or joy.

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• Russians remain confused about what they actually want out of this war: while around 40% of respondents support the continuation of the “SMO”, only 21% oppose the idea of a ceasefire and peace talks.

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Key Findings

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War support in general

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40% of respondents support the continuation of the war in Ukraine. However, about half of the respondents are ready to consider a ceasefire and peace talks. More than a quarter of the respondents were undecided on both questions - a ceasefire and peace talks and the continuation of the war.

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It is notable to mention that there are only half as many opponents of peace talks as supporters of the continuation of the “SMO” (20.4% and 39.4%, respectively). It evidences significant confusion in the way the pro-war Russians see the war and its desirable outcomes.

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Mobilization support

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Unsurprisingly, only a little more than a quarter of the respondents (26.4%) support the mobilization announced by Putin, while almost half (45.1%) are against it with 32% strongly opposing it.

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As the tradition goes, the older the respondent, the more likely they will support both the war against Ukraine and the recently announced mobilization (p<0.001).

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Emotions

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When asked about emotions attributed to the “partial” mobilization, the Russians would normally mention sadness (50.1%) and hope (45.2%). Fear, depression, and anger were also prevailing.

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It is worth noting that the emotion of surprise was among the least mentioned ones. Apparently, most Russians expected that its leadership would need to replenish its armed forces to continue the war against Ukraine, and the relevant decision was only a matter of time.

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Conclusion

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Russians’ attitudes towards the war and mobilization are going through a turbulent period and remain confusing. More than a quarter of Russians are undecided on some of the key questions related to the prospects of the “SMO”, namely whether they want a ceasefire and peace talks or further hostilities on the battlefield. In the meantime, there is currently an apparent lack of support among the Russians for the recently announced “partial” mobilization, as most express negative emotions towards it.