Routinization of the War: November 2022 Research Overview

Executive Summary

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This Report reviews all the publicly available research data and experts’ thoughts on the dynamics of Russian society published in November 2022.

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In general, Russian society is adapting to the war against Ukraine. The war itself is routinized, and though November was full of events on the battleground, like the liberation of Kherson, it did not significantly affect the attitude toward the authorities. Many Russians simply do not follow the war enough to notice that their army has suffered a humiliating defeat and continues to retreat.

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Attitude towards the war against Ukraine

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61% of respondents believe that the "military operation" was necessary. 27% are sure that it should not have been started. The proportion of supporters of the "special operation" increases with age: among respondents aged 18-26, opinions were divided almost equally. Among those over 60 years old, 70% were in favor of the need for a "military operation" (Russian Field).

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About half of the respondents assessed the course of the "special military operation" as successful for the Russian army (51%). At the same time, almost a third (30%) of the respondents negatively perceive the situation at the front (Russian Field).

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Only 39%-45% follow SMO, and 1%-6% follow the news about mobilization (FOM).

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On the question, “Is it possible to trust the official data on how the special operation is going in general?” 42% answered “yes,” while 47% - said “no.” It means that the point when the majority of Russians do not trust official information might have been reached (Russian Field).

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Why do many Russians support the war? Anti-Western resentment

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According to Russian political expert A. Baunov, a significant number of Russians considered their country insufficiently sovereign and expected the authorities to restore this sovereignty quite recently. Since these external forces that have enslaved Russia are obviously more powerful, the outcome of the struggle against them is not a foregone conclusion.

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“Victory” in the eyes of people who are dissatisfied with their position and blame it on external forces is the very attempt to resist, almost regardless of its final result.

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Even if Russia leaves some of the occupied territories of Ukraine, supporters of Putin and his war will not necessarily see this as a defeat. The victory for them, regardless of the state of affairs on Ukrainian territory, is the clash with the West, an open challenge to the world order.

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Support for the authorities and attitude to the economic situation

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Vladimir Putin is trusted by 75-80% of the polled Russians, and his work as President of the Russian Federation is approved by more than 75%. The levels of positive assessment of the work of the Prime Minister and the Government of Russia over the past month are around 50%.

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The rating fluctuated slightly during the month, with no significant spikes or drops (WCIOM, FOM).

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For more than half of the respondents (57%) over the past year, the standard of living has remained unchanged. However, another 27% reported that this level had decreased. Only 15% of respondents raised their standard of living. Optimism is characteristic primarily of the youngest respondents (31% reported an improvement in living standards).

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About a third (36%) of those surveyed believe that life, in general, will not change in the near future, and 29% believe that life will become harder. Only 19% give an optimistic forecast, another 16% found it difficult to answer (Russian Field).

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Conclusions

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It seems that Russian society is adapting to the war against Ukraine. The war itself is routinized, and its course does not significantly affect the attitude toward the authorities. In particular, the retreat of Russian troops from Kherson, officially declared the Russian territory of the only Ukrainian regional center captured after February 24, did not have a particular impact on Putin's rating. Apparently, for the Russians who support the war, the very fact of Russia's confrontation with the West is perceived as a success, or at least as a normal and natural state of affairs. In turn, many Russians simply do not follow the war enough to notice that their army has suffered a humiliating defeat and continues to retreat. Nevertheless, the second wave of mobilization in Russia can change the Russians' attitude toward the war since it will affect everyone.